Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 60.711204 70.916690 82.002108 94.898764 109.449309 125.316185 143.884781
2024-12-15 45.879979 59.752228 76.173074 96.871244 122.076268 151.576471 188.501965
2024-12-22 33.683229 48.032789 66.257944 90.744297 122.378477 161.434699 212.808847
2024-12-29 28.482879 43.724281 64.205324 93.132203 132.234879 182.488646 251.059932
2025-01-05 23.596516 38.830454 60.404817 92.297783 137.197261 196.981512 281.202540
2025-01-12 21.618835 37.689045 61.449495 97.890788 150.876543 223.414820 328.162922
2025-01-19 17.363106 32.364819 55.668410 92.924245 149.074450 228.326484 345.889510
2025-01-26 15.694813 30.884260 55.431263 95.981125 158.826923 249.635377 387.129682
2025-02-02 14.891179 30.713686 57.167795 102.099545 173.388773 278.428010 440.182398
2025-02-09 13.564126 29.407918 56.861383 104.856657 182.865508 300.116908 483.797460
2025-02-16 12.211740 27.841604 55.908200 106.393394 190.404895 319.136691 524.152276
2025-02-23 10.806512 25.951117 54.156771 106.373519 195.337477 334.289604 559.203301
2025-03-02 9.508166 24.235794 52.825066 107.487652 203.083870 355.567299 606.797064
2025-03-09 8.401701 22.755403 51.804815 109.154958 212.056521 379.583964 660.365741
2025-03-16 6.575823 19.291860 46.458540 102.334186 205.889800 378.848316 674.953685
2025-03-23 5.931048 18.434677 46.198607 104.969391 216.366267 405.720789 734.627842
2025-03-30 5.077861 16.869501 44.228826 104.046674 220.298614 421.776390 777.346621
2025-04-06 4.864940 16.926374 45.768319 110.226013 237.617491 461.277408 860.178771
2025-04-13 3.892546 14.670701 41.806871 104.739065 232.656654 462.112715 878.528145
2025-04-20 3.590360 14.268376 42.073714 108.116793 244.787100 493.302431 949.275178
2025-04-27 3.497110 14.483642 43.845827 114.872245 263.870426 537.601065 1043.995137
2025-05-04 3.216189 14.040062 43.932740 117.914274 275.761040 569.457017 1118.331387
2025-05-11 2.901309 13.404885 43.445801 119.609262 285.017289 596.881585 1185.876870